Not my usual rabbit hole, but this one was hard to ignore.
This is not something I follow. Football debates, managerial legacies, club politics. None of it sits in my usual lane.
But when I read this piece on how we judge managers, it did not feel like sport. It felt like behavioural science playing out in public.
Because what it was really showing is this
We do not just misjudge managers
We misjudge context
David Moyes and the attribution trap
At Everton, he built a team that consistently punched above its weight. Limited resources. Modest expectations. Yet on their day, they could trouble the very best.
Then he walked into Manchester United
A dressing room full of stars. A club wired to win, not overachieve
And suddenly, the same manager looked out of place
The easy conclusion
He was not good enough
The bias at play
Fundamental Attribution Error
We judged the person and ignored the situation
Graham Potter and outcome thinking
At Brighton, he was seen as progressive, thoughtful, almost ahead of his time. At Chelsea, that perception shifted quickly
Not because his thinking changed overnight
The bias at play
Outcome Bias
When results dip, we rewrite capability
We rarely ask whether the environment actually supported the approach
José Mourinho and the halo of fit
He thrives where pressure is high, egos are louder, and narratives matter as much as tactics
And over time, that success builds a reputation that travels with him
The bias at play
Halo Effect
We start believing excellence in one context means excellence everywhere
But Mourinho is not universal
He is specific
He fits certain moments exceptionally well
Ravi Shastri and visible leadership
Ravi Shastri did not just coach a team. He changed its posture. He made aggression visible. He made belief feel tangible
The bias at play
Availability Heuristic
What we can see, we value more
What is loud, we remember longer
Even if a lot of the real work sits quietly underneath
Churchill, Chamberlain and hindsight
Winston Churchill is seen as exactly the leader Britain needed. Neville Chamberlain, far less so
The bias at play
Hindsight Bias
Once we know how the story ends, the right choice feels obvious
It never is in the moment
Ballmer, Nadella and the recency shift
Steve Ballmer led Microsoft with intensity, competitiveness, and execution focus. It worked for the time he was in
Then the world shifted
And Satya Nadella brought in something very different. Curiosity. Collaboration. Cultural reset
The bias at play
Recency Bias
We let what matters now redefine what mattered then
The real mistake
The bias at play
Context Neglect
We assume leadership travels unchanged
We ignore how much environments shape behaviour
We forget that different systems need different strengths
So we keep repeating the same pattern
We take leaders who excel at scarcity and place them in abundance
We take operators who run stability and ask them to lead disruption
We bring in process where what is needed is belief
Then we say it did not work
Of course it did not
Because leadership is not universal
It is situational
The real failure is not the manager
It is the mismatch
And until we match leaders to moments, we will keep calling the wrong people failures